Detecting Future ‘Marawis’: Considering Alternative Indicators for Assessing the Potential for New Manifestations of Violent Extremism in Mindanao

The 2017 Battle for Marawi was the proverbial perfect storm—the Maute Group (MG) and its allies were opportunistic actors who exploited the violent milieu provided by the city. Marawi’s prevailing insecurity, its built environment, and alienated population coalesced into a setting conducive for the protracted battle. What are the potential indicators that could detect future ‘Marawis’? This article highlights the need to identify alternative measures to detect sources of violent extremism in Mindanao. Greater foresight could be obtained by observing proxy indicators such as the responsiveness of local governments, poverty levels, and the effectiveness of educational institutions. Based on field visits conducted for this article, the hinterlands of Maguindanao may be the most likely enclave for new MG-style groups.