The Failing Islamic State Within the Failed State of Yemen

This article explores why Islamic State has failed to gain significant traction in Yemen despite conditions on the ground that appeared, superficially at least, to be conducive to its expansion. Four main reasons are posited: its overt brutality and indiscriminate attacks; its inability to rival al-Qa'ida’s deep roots and territorial hold; its failure to find culturally nuanced ways of appealing to locals as well as the difficulties faced by foreign fighters in both reaching and integrating in Yemen; and its arrogant and alienating leadership style. The article next looks at Islamic State’s challenges and weaknesses in Yemen by analysing both the revelations of defectors and its own propaganda. Despite some early support from inside Saudi Arabia, Islamic State lacked charismatic leaders who inspired broad loyalty and respect and was well into decline by 2016. Nevertheless, Islamic State media continued to project a magnified image of its presence in Yemen, possibly assisted by several false flagged attacks. Finally the article unravels the conflict that erupted between Islamic State and al-Qa'ida in mid-2018. The evidence suggests that the conflict is linked to local territorial and power rivalries and may have been provoked by external actors intent on sowing rifts inside Yemen’s jihad. Looking ahead, Islamic State and al-Qa'ida are unlikely to merge formally, and both groups will weaken in the short-term. Al-Qa'ida retains the upper hand but there are some signs that Islamic State may be trying to develop a more ‘authentic’ image in Yemen. For jihadist foot soldiers, however, both labels may be becoming less relevant. In the long-term, the prospects for jihad look more promising. Either the current war persists, providing favourable conditions for jihad groups to thrive, or a peace deal is reached, which will inevitably result in disillusioned sectors of the population with whom jihad groups might make common cause.