Insights from Comparing Pre-Attack Variables in the Las Vegas Mass Shooting with Ideologically Motivated Violent Extremist Attacks

This article provides a review of recent literature, summarizing the development and discussion of pre-attack variables as an area of focus for threat assessment and proactive risk mitigation concerning lone actor attacks and targeted violence attacks. An in-depth case study of the motivationally elusive Las Vegas mass shooter Stephen Paddock is presented, including an analysis of Paddock’s pre-attack planning behaviors, using the same variable nomenclature as a recent FBI pre-attack planning behaviors study of active shooters. The pre-attack planning and preparation activities are compared both factually and in the context of recent literature regarding lone actor attacks. The pre-attack process of radicalization is discussed as a primary distinction between motivation-elusive actors and ideologically motivated extremists. The article concludes with a discussion of pre-attack intervention opportunities and potential lessons learned to improve future threat assessment and risk-mitigation efforts.