‘Remodelling:’ The Need for More Robust Models and Metrics for Counterterrorism Threat Analysis

In this Policy Note the author addresses shortcomings found in many current proprietary counterterrorism threat assessment tools used by government agencies. In addition, he provides evidence which makes a strong case for the adoption of a Structured Professional Judgment methodology, to be used as the basis of future proprietary or in-house terrorist threat assessments within law enforcement and intelligence agencies.