Who are the ISIS People?

By definition, an “armed group” is a group of individuals which threatens or uses violence to achieve its goals. And while a significant body of academic and policy research is looking at the “violence” aspect of the definition, trying to understand why and how groups engage in violence, the “group” aspect of it (the people involved) often receives less attention. Yet without the people, there is no group and, as a result, no one to conduct those acts of violence. So to truly understand the prospects of an armed group like ISIS in the future, we need to understand what we can about their cadre, in particular: 1) who ISIS 1.0 members were, 2) who among them survived and what are their plans, and 3) who could potentially be inspired by the group’s proposed goals in the future. By understanding these issues, it becomes easier to develop better policies for discouraging current members from continuing operations (“de-radicalization”) and for preventing new people from joining.