Quantitative research on terrorist recidivism remains surprisingly limited, despite heightened concern among policymakers, practitioners, and the general public. Several factors contribute to this situation, including restricted access to sensitive data and the difficulty of assembling samples large enough to support robust statistical analyses, given the inherent rarity of terrorist offending. In Belgium, more than 650 individuals were convicted of terrorism-related offences between 2006 and 2024. Drawing on Belgium’s Central Criminal Record, this study examines post-conviction trajectories of this population. Building on a first wave of research published in 2025, it benefits from an extended observation period (2006–2024) and a larger, more homogeneous analytical sample. The study pursues two objectives: first, to provide a detailed description of recidivism patterns—prevalence, timing, and offence types—within this population, and; second, to identify factors associated with reoffending using survival analysis and Cox proportional hazards models. Findings show that terrorist recidivism is exceedingly rare (2.5%; n = 10), whereas general recidivism (18.7%) predominantly concerns common criminal offences (e.g., traffic violations). Survival analysis indicates that the instantaneous risk of recidivism peaks within the first five years after conviction, followed by a sharp decline. Factors associated with recidivism include both classic criminological factors (e.g., prior convictions, gender) and variables specific to terrorism-related offenders (e.g., organisational affiliation and role). Criminal career duration also emerges as a key determinant of recidivism. The article concludes by discussing the study’s methodological limitations and the implications of the findings for prevention, risk assessment, and policy development.
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